Recession ahead? Yes, but probably not soon

Yes, growth rates will probably slow for these classes of spending in a recession, but the bulk of the downward pressure is likely to fall on housing and fixed investment. Meanwhile, an already lean level of inventories should help to prevent much further decline in inventories, which should offer some support to industrial production.

by Pierre Lemieux I will not repeat the clich according to which predicting the future is more difficult than predicting the past, but I see at least three reasons to expect a recession soon. First, the last recession ended nine years ago (in June 2009), which means that the current expansion will have lasted 10 [.]

Recession 2017? These Things Never Happen Unless The Economy Is In Decline. by Tyler Durden.. and it was probably inevitable that we were headed for a significant economic downturn no matter who won the election.. once a new recession begins it may not play out like recessions normally do.

Probably not. Consequently. term rates fell back to 1.2% and there is little risk of recession, wouldn’t a 7% coupon rate be worth at least considering? We believe the market would say yes. CIM.

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But we also said at the time that the recession would not be evident before the end of the year.. He said, “Yes, of course,” recalling the day before the Lehman collapse. The takeaway is that, in the early stages of recession, the data are. come under significant revision in the months (and years) ahead.

Bottom Line: The business cycle is not dead. The future holds another recession. But many, many things have to start going wrong in fairly short order to bring about a recession in the next twelve months. It would probably have to be an extraordinary set of events outside of the typical business cycle dynamics.

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It doesn’t happen a lot, but sometimes an industry telegraphs a rough earnings season ahead. Arguably, we’re seeing that lately with the Financial sector, which continues to see fundamentals.

Is the Next Recession Coming Soon? Antonio Fats, INSEAD Professor of Economics | August 21, 2014. The current expansion is already longer than the average post-war business cycle. But what does the data tell us about the chances of an impending recession? Here is a thought experiment..

My outlook for 2017 and beyond is that the U.S. economy will likely see another recession. Yes, the economic picture currently looks wonderful.