Why the market shouldn’t be excited about Fed rate cuts

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 · Some investors think Fed may cut rates this year, but it’s unlikely, as Fed Chairman boasted of economic gains and a strong market that wouldn’t require this action. Rates could go down in 2020. The soonest most experts agree a decrease could happen is next year, and that’s only if GDP growth slows from a predicted 2.5% this year to 1.8% next year.

S&P expects the Fed to signal at its june policy meeting next week that it intends to begin cutting rates, with an expected cut in September. A warning: "The Fed may want to move sooner and more quickly than it has in the past." Go deeper: Why the market shouldn’t be excited about Fed rate cuts

So why cut rates now? The Fed is worried about a possible future adverse shock to growth — perhaps due to the unsettling swings in trade policy emanating from the White House. I agree that the central bank needs to address this risk. But in the absence of hard data, reducing the target interest rate would be problematic.

The Fed might cut rates, but it probably won’t have much effect. I will explain exactly why that is the case. On Tuesday, the Fed hinted that it was ready to take action if the US economy started.

Both bond and stock markets have priced in at least one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. Even though the Fed didn’t cut rates at its June meeting, the market edged higher on perceived dovish language from Chairman Jerome Powell.

 · In signaling that the Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut interest rates at the end of this month, Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell may have given President Trump what he wants.

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Why the market shouldn’t be excited about fed rate cuts illustration: ada Amer/Axios When fed chair jerome Powell said Tuesday that the Fed would "act as appropriate to sustain the expansion" traders took it as the latest confirmation of the Powell put – the notion that Powell and the Fed are prepared to lower interest rates and stimulate.

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